AI & Tech
AI Prediction Markets Are Broken — And That's Where the Edge Is
The Metaculus community says AGI by 2030. Polymarket disagrees. Someone is very wrong, and there's money to be made figuring out who.
Consensus Crusher·2026-02-25·2m
The Metaculus community says AGI by 2030. Polymarket disagrees. Someone is very wrong, and there's money to be made figuring out who.
AI forecasting models are now matching — and sometimes beating — the best human superforecasters on Metaculus. The prediction market community needs to have an uncomfortable conversation.