From the Iowa Electronic Markets' humble beginnings in 1988 to Polymarket's $3 billion election bets, prediction markets have survived terrorism controversies, regulatory crackdowns, and crypto winters to emerge as democracy's new crystal ball.
Compare the three major prediction markets — Polymarket's crypto liquidity, Kalshi's US regulation, and Metaculus's scientific community — to find your perfect forecasting platform.
Your brain's prediction software is riddled with bugs. From anchoring bias to overconfidence, discover why humans are terrible forecasters and how prediction markets use crowd wisdom to overcome our cognitive blind spots.
While sportsbooks still pretend they're running legitimate markets, Flutter Entertainment is going full degen on prediction markets. Smart money or late-to-the-party desperation?
Master the art of reading prediction market odds with this comprehensive guide to interpreting probability data, order books, and market signals like a professional trader.
The moment you put real money behind your predictions, something magical happens: bullshit evaporates faster than your portfolio during a crypto crash.
While CNBC pundits were busy arguing about rate cuts, Polymarket traders quietly priced in the exact outcome three weeks early. Here's why that matters.
Prediction markets let you bet on real-world events like elections, sports, and economic outcomes. Here's your complete beginner's guide to understanding how they work and why they matter.
Insider trading on Polymarket isn't a bug—it's a feature. While traditional markets ban information advantages, prediction markets are eating their lunch by embracing the uncomfortable truth: someone always knows more than you do.
Prediction markets prove what Taleb knew all along: skin in the game transforms worthless punditry into actionable intelligence, separating those who know from those who just talk.
Traditional political polling is dying a slow death, and prediction markets like Polymarket just delivered the fatal blow. When money talks, experts finally shut up.
Traditional political polling is dying, and prediction markets like Polymarket just delivered the killing blow. When people bet real money, they tell the truth—unlike pollsters selling clickbait forecasts.
Prediction markets crushed traditional polling in 2024, proving that skin in the game beats surveys every time. The polling industrial complex is about to get disrupted.
Circle shares hit $90 as analysts realize prediction markets aren't just another crypto fad—they're the future of information discovery. Polymarket's growth is turning USDC into the de facto currency of truth.
While traditional markets are for investing, Polymarket just launched 15-minute Bitcoin direction bets that make roulette look sophisticated. What does this say about where prediction markets are headed?
The prediction market says 34% chance of recession. That means two-thirds of the smart money thinks you're wrong. Let's look at who's actually betting.
A former gubernatorial candidate and MrBeast employee got slapped with fines for playing fast and loose with Kalshi's prediction markets. The real story? What happens when platforms police their own Wild West.
When a Trump-appointed regulator becomes the prediction markets industry's best friend, you know we're living in the upside-down timeline. The CFTC is quietly dismantling decades of betting prohibition—and the establishment is losing its mind.
Your portfolio manager charges 1% to guess what the Fed will do. The prediction market gives you the answer for free — and it's more accurate. Time to fire someone.
When your 0DTE options aren't giving you the dopamine hit anymore, there's always betting on whether civilization collapses before Christmas. The migration is real, and it's spectacular.
Kalshi's court battle to stay in Nevada just hit a brick wall harder than a drunk tourist walking into the Bellagio fountains. Here's what this legal beatdown means for the future of prediction markets in America's gambling capital.
The WSJ calls Polymarket's markets "wild" like it's a bug, not a feature. But chaos is where truth lives—and where the real money gets made.